Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 72847.882310 77017.190576 81192.942043 85685.906244 90380.445173 95137.775171 100320.125611
2025-11-30 66063.817379 72422.027214 78975.195202 86224.629861 94010.126784 102110.615977 111166.514368
2025-12-07 61325.849995 69187.690161 77475.703991 86844.888660 97122.169623 108032.642000 120471.148193
2025-12-14 57253.973713 66187.457567 75786.486747 86835.973900 99171.113871 112484.786869 127907.559054
2025-12-21 54124.385664 63921.237946 74624.671605 87140.302799 101324.818904 116852.574158 135085.767172
2025-12-28 52203.435950 62827.888929 74606.853714 88570.408030 104604.974239 122373.609225 143482.523604
2026-01-04 50298.535857 61604.499732 74309.897313 89562.744341 107289.017058 127151.391170 150997.353425
2026-01-11 48412.947775 60280.738901 73788.075101 90195.564379 109477.120986 131304.749341 157765.103049
2026-01-18 46429.669283 58732.645144 72906.469590 90317.318657 110994.662956 134629.487599 163542.076898
2026-01-25 44675.796071 57369.309871 72162.337353 90526.503734 112552.616178 137957.205083 169298.558458
2026-02-01 42900.340182 55898.168522 71215.464734 90424.615265 113683.535913 140742.027240 174393.287829
2026-02-08 41657.793342 55021.511612 70933.848638 91077.719498 115682.318109 144533.483060 180679.122174
2026-02-15 40041.468309 53637.485368 70000.791166 90917.222062 116695.429093 147168.065561 185632.412835
2026-02-22 39224.079755 53221.738242 70233.245985 92169.725234 119424.335352 151876.970896 193116.445165
2026-03-01 38251.363293 52566.926068 70133.085072 92981.244618 121594.455335 155907.550972 199797.516745
2026-03-08 36973.005395 51471.322736 69436.069990 93007.146070 122761.814620 158698.459619 204966.598750
2026-03-15 35909.990563 50614.630034 69005.659392 93337.062301 124284.572098 161914.141560 210661.473625
2026-03-22 35437.532039 50508.746824 69516.686901 94851.622482 127293.495994 166976.693900 218666.184663
2026-03-29 34792.111510 50147.620812 69677.353168 95901.580506 129708.484830 171307.813547 225787.494645
2026-04-05 34020.233412 49589.468547 69558.120645 96570.916481 131627.784955 175020.134048 232153.414074
2026-04-12 33063.264138 48750.138119 69042.392822 96699.694233 132836.106880 177831.092806 237394.604027
2026-04-19 32190.178113 47996.649571 68614.497744 96920.910438 134147.723820 180766.704512 242800.870858
2026-04-26 31227.722765 47090.575538 67956.249857 96813.166000 135012.919399 183124.751493 247476.999183